Hurricane Season

 

Hurricane Season

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) defines a hurricane as “an intense tropical weather system with a well-defined circulation and maximum sustained winds of 74 mph (64 knots) or higher.”

Be prepared – have a plan!

For assistance with making an emergency plan read more here »
. 1) FEMA Ready
. 2) American Red Cross Disaster and Safety Library
. 3) ReadyNC
. 4) Town Emergency Information
. 5) HBPOIN Hurricane Emergency Plan

THB – EVACUATION, CURFEW & VEHICLE DECALS
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If the Town declares a mandatory evacuation, PLEASE LEAVE
General Assembly during the 2012 Session, specifically authorizes both voluntary and mandatory evacuations, and increases the penalty for violating any local emergency restriction or prohibition from a Class 3 to a Class 2 misdemeanor. Given the broad authority granted to the governor and city and county officials under the North Carolina Emergency Management Act (G.S. Chapter 166A) to take measures necessary to protect public health, safety, and welfare during a disaster, it is reasonable to interpret the authority to “direct and compel” evacuations to mean ordering “mandatory” evacuations. Those who choose to not comply with official warnings to get out of harm’s way, or are unable to, should prepare themselves to be fully self-sufficient for the first 72 hours after the storm.

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No matter what a storm outlook is for a given year,

vigilance and preparedness is urged.

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Previously reported – December 2024
This year’s Atlantic hurricane season is officially over
The season proved hyperactive, with five hurricanes hitting the United States.
Coastal residents can now take a collective deep breath – hurricane season is now technically over. By the books, Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. While surprises can happen, a hurricane has never hit the Lower 48 outside this window, according to records that date back to 1861. Five hurricanes slammed the United States. Four alone reached at least Florida. According to some estimates, damage exceeded $190 billion. More than 200 people died as a result of Helene, making it the deadliest mainland U.S. storm since Katrina – though thousands died in Puerto Rico, a U.S. territory, when Maria hit in September 2017. The season has been a hyperactive one. That’s according to ACE, or Accumulated Cyclone Energy – a metric that estimates how much energy storms churn through and expend on strong winds. A typical hurricane season averages 122.5 ACE units. This season has featured 161.6 units – above the 159.6 unit threshold required for a season to be “hyperactive.” That’s in line with preseason forecasts, which pointed toward anomalously warm ocean waters and a burgeoning La Niña pattern. La Niña, which begin as a cooling of water temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific, tend to feature enhanced upward motion in the air over the Atlantic.
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Atlantic hurricane season races to finish within range of predicted number of named storms
2024 season came roaring back despite slowdown during typical peak period
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially ends on Nov. 30, showcased above-average activity, with a record-breaking ramp up following a peak-season lull.The Atlantic basin saw 18 named storms in 2024 (winds of 39 mph or greater). Eleven of those were hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater) and five intensified to major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). Five hurricanes made landfall in the continental U.S., with two storms making landfall as major hurricanes. The Atlantic seasonal activity fell within the predicted ranges for named storms and hurricanes issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center in the 2024 August Hurricane Season Outlook. An average season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. “As hurricanes and tropical cyclones continue to unleash deadly and destructive forces, it’s clear that NOAA’s critical science and services are needed more than ever by communities, decision makers and emergency planners,” said NOAA Administrator, Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “I could not be more proud of the contributions of our scientists, forecasters, surveyors, hurricane hunter pilots and their crews for the vital role they play in helping to safeguard lives and property.” Twelve named storms formed after the climatological peak of the season in early September. Seven hurricanes formed in the Atlantic since September 25 – the most on record for this period. “The impactful and deadly 2024 hurricane season started off intensely, then relaxed a bit before roaring back,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center

Previously reported – March 2025
Hurricane season is 3 months away. Will it be as active as last year?
What to know at this early stage.
One of the first things that tipped scientists off that 2024 would be an unusually active hurricane season: excessive ocean warmth in a key region of the Atlantic Ocean. But that’s just one of many factors different as this year begins. With the Atlantic hurricane season less than three months away, forecasters are making early efforts to understand how this year may differ from the last. And while specific forecasts for the number of hurricanes can’t be accurately made this far out, forecasters can look to planetary climate patterns for clues. At least two key differences suggest odds are lower for another extremely active season: For one, the tropical Atlantic isn’t as warm as it was last year. And a La Niña (known for cooling a vast swath of the Pacific Ocean) is not expected to form during the season. But it’s still early – and current conditions don’t entirely eliminate the odds of an overactive season. In the Atlantic Ocean, hurricane season runs from June through November, typically peaking in September. Last year, hurricane season was hyperactive, based on a metric called Accumulated Cyclone Energy. There were 18 named storms and five hurricane landfalls in the United States, including the devastating Hurricane Helene. The Atlantic is cooler than last year Among the many complex puzzle pieces that start to create a picture of hurricane season – including winds, air pressure patterns, Saharan Dust and monsoonal activity – sea temperatures are a key driver. Scientists look as an early signal to what’s called the Atlantic Main Development Region, or MDR, which extends from the Caribbean to the west, and to near Africa in the east. Sea surface temperatures in the MDR have a statistical relationship with hurricane activity. In 2024, there was excessive warmth in the MDR. But it’s not currently as warm as last year, nor is it forecast to be in a few months. When the MDR is cooler, it can contribute to atmospheric conditions that aren’t particularly conducive to lots of hurricanes. Forecasts for the MDR extend to July 2025, and they suggest that while seas in the region may be somewhat above-average, the Atlantic’s most unusual warmth will be located farther north. Comparing forecasts made for July of both years shows how much warmer the MDR was predicted to be in 2024 – a prediction that turned out to be correct. If the predictions hold true this year, that might reduce the odds for a season as active as 2024. Andy Hazelton, a physical scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Environmental Modeling Center, said the cooling of the MDR is the biggest factor that has stood out to him so far. “It’s still pretty warm, especially in the Caribbean, but the subtropics (north of the MDR) look warmer overall right now,” Hazelton said. If the pattern were to continue, he said, it could put a cap on how active the season may be. La Niña may be fading During hurricane season, the Pacific and Atlantic oceans are more than distant neighbors – they’re connected by the atmosphere. What happens in one doesn’t stay there; it sends ripples to the other, shaping storm activity on both sides. One pattern that causes a Pacific-Atlantic ripple effect is known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has three phases: El Niño, La Niña and neutral. El Niño is marked by warmer-than-average seas in the eastern Pacific, while cool seas are prominent there during La Niña. Neutral periods often occur during transitions between El Niño and La Niña, as sea temperatures temporarily become less anomalous. Early this year, the tropical Pacific entered a La Niña phase – but it’s not expected to last for much longer. The cool waters associated with La Niña can suppress rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the tropical Pacific. But as the atmosphere balances itself, increased rainfall and thunderstorm activity, as well as winds that are more conducive to hurricane formation, can occur in the tropical Atlantic. This is why, in addition to the record-warm Atlantic seas, forecasters were so concerned about the level of hurricane activity last year. But a period of weaker winds in the eastern Pacific this month has caused a substantial warming of the ocean to the west of South America. Because the winds have been less robust, a process known as upwelling – which happens when strong winds churn cool, subsurface waters to the surface – has slowed down. If the warming continues, it will put the Pacific in a much different state than it was heading into the last hurricane season. This year, a developing tongue of warm water in the eastern Pacific could have the opposite effect as it did last year, promoting rising air and more rainfall there, while having a drying effect on the Atlantic. However, predictions of El Niño and La Niña are not made equal. A phenomenon known as the “spring predictability barrier” can lead to less-skillful forecasts during spring in the Northern Hemisphere. “ENSO still has the spring barrier to cross,” Hazelton said. “But cool subsurface conditions and persistent trade winds suggest we probably won’t be getting a rapid flip or setting up for El Niña in the summer.” The bottom line: It’s still early, but 2025 looks different One thing can be said confidently at this point: So far this year, the elements that drive the Atlantic hurricane season look markedly different from 2024. The Atlantic Ocean is shaping up to have a different sea-temperature configuration than last year, with the most unusually warm seas sitting outside of the MDR. A marine heat wave – expansive blobs of unusual oceanic heat that are becoming more common in a warming climate – no longer covers the MDR, but remains active in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, areas where hurricanes derive their energy from. In the Pacific, the door may be closing on La Niña as seas warm up in the east. But a full-fledged, hurricane-halting El Niño doesn’t look particularly likely, either. Hazelton said it’s possible there will be ENSO neutral conditions during peak hurricane season. These are some of the factors forecasters will be monitoring closely as hurricane season approaches. Seasonal outlooks of hurricane activity are typically released in April and May. And while the data may change, one thing is certain: It’s never too early to prepare, especially considering the United States experienced impactful landfalls from Hurricanes Beryl, Debby, Francine, Helene and Milton last year. Read more » click here, a division of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “Several possible factors contributed to the peak season lull in the Atlantic region. The particularly intense winds and rains over Western Africa created an environment that was less hospitable for storm development.”
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Previously reported – April 2025
What early signs suggest about the 2025 hurricane season ahead
A marine heat wave in the Caribbean Sea may fuel an impactful hurricane season in 2025, even though seas have cooled in some areas compared to last year.
Hurricane season is just two months away, and early indications suggest it might not be as hyperactive as last year’s. Still, several factors hint that it won’t be quiet, either. For one, forecasters are looking to the oceans for signs of what could be brewing. Seas in the part of the Atlantic where storms typically form are cooler than they were at this time in 2024 – with warmer waters allowing more fuel for strengthening. But seas are nonetheless about 0.7 degrees higher than the long-term average, the eighth-warmest on record since at least 1940. A marine heat wave remains active across the Caribbean Sea and parts of the Gulf of Mexico – blobs of unusual ocean heat that, should they linger, may tip the scales toward stronger storms close to land. However, La Niña, which tends to boost hurricane activity, is fading. Still, no matter how many (or how few) storms form, it takes only one landfall to make a hurricane season devastating. Last year, five hurricanes made landfall in the contiguous United States – just the ninth season since 1851 to have at least five storm centers hit land.There were 18 storms in total, and the season was considered hyperactive, according to a metric called accumulated cyclone energy. Ahead of further key forecasts,including one from Colorado State University expected later this week, here’s The Washington Post’s assessment for the coming season, and the four key factors that will shape it: Key factors this hurricane season Sea temperatures in the Main Development Region From August to October, tropical storm and hurricane seedlings move from Africa into a vast region of warm seas in the tropical Atlantic Ocean known as the Main Development Region (MDR). The warmer it is, the more energy and moisture are available to fuel storms, allowing them to strengthen as they move through the area. Last year, the MDR was record warm, which is part of the reason forecasters expected such an active season. The MDR is cooler than it was at this time in 2024, especially near the coast of Africa, but it’s still unusually warm overall. In March, it’s been the eighth-warmest on record. Miami-based hurricane expert Michael Lowry is closely watching sea temperatures in this important region. “I certainly see some encouraging trends which suggest this upcoming season could be less active overall than recent hyperactive ones. The Atlantic remains plenty warm – much warmer than average – but after almost two years of unprecedented warmth, it’s nice to see water temperatures fall to more precedented levels,” said Lowry, a hurricane specialist with Local 10 News in Miami. Sea temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean The global climate patterns El Niña and La Niña play a critical role in determining how busy hurricane season may be. La Niña, which tends to boost hurricane activity by creating winds more conducive to their formation, has waned in recent months. The tropical Pacific Ocean is now a mix of warmer and cooler-than-average waters –moving toward what is known as a neutral phase. In other words, having neither La Niña nor El Niño. Odds are that neutral conditions will be in place for the start of hurricane season, but this time of year presents challenges for forecasting because of a phenomenon known as the spring predictability barrier. “So-called neutral years can also be quite active in the Atlantic, so unless we see a big warm-up toward El Niño over the next four or five months, the Pacific shouldn’t be a major deterrent this season,” Lowry said. A marine heat wave in the Caribbean Sea Ocean water across the Caribbean Sea and western Gulf of Mexico is well above average for the time of year – enough to qualify as a marine heat wave. These vast expanses of unusual ocean heat can affect coral reefs and the behavior of marine life but also provide more moisture and fuel for tropical weather systems. Last year, Hurricanes Helene and Milton derived their energy from a gulf affected by a marine heat wave. Both storms broke atmospheric moisture records, which contributed to extreme rainfall. The West African monsoon During June to September, heavy rains and thunderstorms bubble up over the West African Sahel. The strongest disturbances survive the long journey across Africa and emerge in the Atlantic – where they meet increasingly warm seas and strengthen further into tropical storms and hurricanes. How active the African monsoon season is helps determine how many storms may move into the Atlantic. The early indication is there will be a more active monsoon than normal. But not all monsoons are equal – last year’s episode sent storms swirling unusually far north into the Sahara,where it rains very little. Such oddities are not predictable months in advance. Other factors, such asdust from the Sahara, can reduce hurricane risk as the dry air suppresses rainfall and thunderstorm activity across the Atlantic – and can cool the ocean. But it’s not typically possible to predict dust outbreaks more than a week or so in advance. Last season,Hurricane Ernesto ingested wildfire smokeas it moved past Newfoundland, Canada. The intersection of hurricanes andwildfireswill be something to watch this season, particularly as many parts of the United States continue to deal with drought impacts. What is known – and what remains uncertain It’s not possible to predict exactly when or where a tropical storm or hurricane will strike weeks or months in advance. But a broad-brush understanding of the theme of hurricane season can be developed by comparing current conditions to the past and forecast models. Forecasters analyze several key metrics and use a variety of techniques to help understand whether the season might be quiet or busy, relative to an average season, which has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). The key predictors currently suggest that a slightly above average Atlantic hurricane season in 2025 is possible, but the hyperactive characteristics present in 2024 are fading. Lowry called hurricane season “a marathon, not a sprint” – and referred to the 1992 season, when Andrew, a hurricane with deadly impacts in South Florida, was the first and only major Atlantic hurricane of the year. He urged early preparations for any scenario. “Emergency managers and disaster planners don’t alter their plans based on the seasonal outlooks, and neither should you or your family,” Lowry said. “Prepare this year as you would any other year. It only takes one bad hurricane to make it a bad season where you live.”
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As the NC coast gears up for hurricane season, a big change is coming to forecast maps
We’re still a couple of months out from the start of the2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which is the perfect time to start preparing. Gearing up for hurricane season entails more than just making sure your hurricane supplies are topped off. Making sure you can receive the latest weather updates and staying on top of what’s new for the2025 hurricane season is just as important. The National Hurricane Center has already announced more than a few changes it’s making for the upcoming hurricane season, like updating its “cone of uncertainty” and providing an earlier window to send alerts about potential tropical activity. Here’s what to know about what’s news for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. The NHC is updating its Potential Tropical Cyclone system for 2025 Starting on May 15, the National Weather Service (NWS) will implement some significant changes to its Potential Tropical Cyclone advisory (PTC) system.

• • Extended forecast window: The National Hurricane Center will be able to issue PTC advisories up to 72 hours before anticipated impacts, which is up from the previous 48-hour window.
  • Relaxed warning criteria: The change eliminates the previous requirement that advisories could only be issued for PTCs that required land-based watches or warnings.

The experimental cone of uncertainty will be narrower The NHC says it will continue using its experimental cone graphic, which is frequently referred to as the cone of uncertainty. The graphic is meant to track the probable path of a tropical cyclone’s center.The cone is frequently misunderstood, which is one reason the NHC consistently updates the product. Here are this year’s changes.

• • New symbols: The cone of uncertainty legend will now contain symbology for areas where a hurricane watch and tropical storm are in effect at the same time, marked by diagonal pink and blue lines.
  • Narrower cone of uncertainty: The size of the tropical cyclone track forecast error cone will be about 3-5% smaller compared to last year.

New rip current risk map will highlight dangerous conditions stemming from hurricanes Due to an increase in surf and rip current fatalities in the United States, the NHC will provide current risk information from distant hurricanes and provide a national rip current risk map.

• • Rip current risk map: To highlight the risk of dangerous conditions, NHC will provide rip current risk information from local National Weather Service and Weather Force Cast Offices in the form of a map.

Current day, next day and a composite showing the highest risk over both days will be available for areas along the East and Gulf coasts of the U.S in one page.
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Previously reported – May 2025
Prepare now for hurricanes, Trump warns. Here’s what NC residents, others should do.
NOAA says the best time to prepare for oncoming storms is now – well before the official start of Hurricane season.
National Hurricane Preparedness Week was designated by President Donald Trumpon May 5, a reminder that deadly hurricanes will soon be brewing. The Atlantic Hurricane season starts June 1. Presidents dating back to at least George W. Bush have issued proclamations about the preparedness week tradition, which warns of danger ahead. According to Trump’s latest proclamation, this is “a time to raise awareness about the dangers of these storms and encourage citizens in coastal areas and inland communities to be vigilant in emergency planning and preparation.” Yet another active year is predicted, with as many as17 named storms possible, according to a forecast from Colorado State University experts. TheNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says the best time to prepare for oncoming storms is now – well before the official start of the season. “Take action TODAY to be better prepared for when the worst happens. Understand your risk from hurricanes and begin pre-season preparations now.” Delaying potentially life-saving preparations could mean waiting until it’s too late. “Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period,” NOAA recommends. NC braces for hurricane season North Carolina is No. 2. That’s not good when it comes to hurricane season predictions Here are five things you should do now: 1. Develop an evacuation plan If you are at risk from hurricanes, you need an evacuation plan. Now is the time to begin planning where you would go and how you would get there.You do not need to travel hundreds of miles. Your destination could be a friend or relative who lives in a well-built home outside flood prone areas. Plan several routes and be sure to account for your pets. 2. Assemble disaster supplies Whether you’re evacuating or sheltering-in-place, you’re going to need supplies not just to get through the storm but for the potentially lengthy aftermath,NOAA said.Have enough non-perishable food, water and medicine to last each person in your family a minimum of three days (store a longer than 3-day supply of water, if possible). Electricity and water could be out for weeks. You’ll need extra cash, a battery-powered radio and flashlights. You may need a portable crank or solar-powered USB charger for your cell phones. And lastly, don’t forget your pets! 3. Get an insurance checkup and document your possessions Contact your insurance company or agent now and ask for aninsurance check-upto make sure you have enough insurance to repair or even replace your home and/or belongings. Remember, home and renters insurance doesn’t cover flooding, so you’ll need a separate policy for it. Flood insurance is available through your company, agent, or theNational Flood Insurance Program. Act now, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period.Also take the time before hurricane season begins to document your possessions: photos, serial numbers, or anything else that you may need to provide your insurance company when filing a claim. 4. Create a family communication plan NOAA said to take the time now to write down yourhurricane plan, and share it with your family. Determine family meeting places, and make sure to include an out-of-town location in case of evacuation.Write down on paper a list of emergency contacts, and make sure to include utilities and other critical services – remember, the Internet may not be accessible during or after a storm. 5. Strengthen your home Now is the time to improve your home’s ability to withstand hurricane impacts. Trim trees; install storm shutters, accordion shutters, and/or impact glass; seal outside wall openings.Remember, the garage door is the most vulnerable part of the home, so it must be able to withstand hurricane-force winds. Many retrofits are not as costly or time consuming as you may think, NOAA said.If you’re a renter, work with your landlord now to prepare for a storm. And remember – now is the time to purchase the proper plywood, steel or aluminum panels to have on hand if you need to board up the windows and doors ahead of an approaching storm.
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Will hurricane season start early this year? Recent trends suggest yes
Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through November 30, but Mother Nature does not always follow that calendar – and it looks like this year could also defy the timeline. In recent days, some forecasting models have hinted at the possibility of a head start to the 2025 season, showing the potential for storm development–specifically in the western Caribbean where conditions appear more favorable. In seven of the last 10 years, at least one named storm has formed before June 1. For comparison, there were only three years with early named storms from 2005 to 2014. After six years of storms forming early, the National Hurricane Center decided in 2021 to start issuing tropical weather outlooks beginning May 15–two weeks earlier than previously done. Some years have even seen multiple prior to the season’s start. There were two ahead-of-schedule named storms in 2012, 2016 and 2020 – and 2020 nearly had three, with Tropical Storm Cristobal forming on June 1. When a hurricane season starts early, it doesn’t necessarily mean there will be more storms.But there could be cause for concern this year, as the season’s poised to be a busy one, with an above-average 17 named storms predicted, according to hurricane researchers at Colorado State University. Early activity has largely been thanks to unusually warm waters in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf basins during the spring. It’s a trend meteorologists and climate scientists have been watching for years. As our climate continues to warm, so do the oceans, which absorb 90% of the world’s surplus heat. That can have a ripple effect on tropical systems around the globe. Warm water acts as fuel for hurricanes, providing heat and moisture that rises into the storm, strengthening it. The hotter the water, the more energy available to power the hurricane’s growth. And a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, which in turn means more fuel for the tropical systems to pull from. Sea surface temperatures are already incredibly warm for this time of year, especially in the Gulf and southern Caribbean. This means any system passing through those regions could take advantage if other atmospheric conditions are favorable and develop into an early named storm. In the Caribbean, water temperatures are among some of the warmest on record for early May, and more in line with temperatures found in late June and July.The Eastern Pacific hurricane season has also seen some preseason activity in recent years, though not as frequent as the Atlantic. Part of the reason is because the Eastern Pacific season begins two weeks earlier, on May 15. In the last 20 years, the Eastern Pacific basin has only had three named tropical systems prior to that date–Andreas in 2021, Adrian in 2017 and Aletta in 2012. Another reason is the relationship between the two basins and storm formation. Generally, when the Atlantic basin is more active, the Pacific is less so due to a number of factors, including El Niño and La Niña.
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NOAA 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
The 2025 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook is an official product of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The outlook is produced in collaboration with hurricane experts from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML). The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of America.

Interpretation of NOAA’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook:
This outlook is a general guide to the expected overall activity during the upcoming hurricane season. It is not a seasonal hurricane landfall forecast, and it does not predict levels of activity for any particular location. Preparedness: Hurricane-related disasters can occur during any season, even for years with low overall activity. It only takes one hurricane (or tropical storm) to cause a disaster. It is crucial that residents, businesses, and government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions prepare for every hurricane season regardless of this, or any other, seasonal outlook. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) through Ready.gov (English) and www.listo.gov (Spanish), the NHC, the Small Business Administration, and the American Red Cross all provide important hurricane preparedness information on their web sites.

NOAA does not make seasonal hurricane landfall predictions:
NOAA does not make seasonal hurricane landfall predictions. Hurricane landfalls are largely determined by the weather patterns in place as the hurricane approaches, and those patterns are usually only predictable when the storm is within several days of making landfall.

Preparedness for tropical storm and hurricane landfalls:
It only takes one storm hitting an area to cause a disaster, regardless of the overall activity for the season. Therefore, residents, businesses, and government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions should prepare every hurricane season regardless of this, or any other, seasonal outlook.

Nature of this outlook and the “likely” ranges of activity:
This outlook is probabilistic, meaning the stated “likely” ranges of activity have a certain likelihood of occurring. The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 7 out of 10 seasons with similar conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. They do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years. Years with similar levels of activity can have dramatically different impacts. This outlook is based on analyses of 1) predictions of large-scale factors known to influence seasonal hurricane activity, and 2) long-term forecast models that directly predict seasonal hurricane activity. The outlook also takes into account uncertainties inherent in such outlooks.

Sources of uncertainty in the seasonal outlooks:

• • Predicting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases, which include El Niño and La Niña events and ENSO-neutral and their impacts on North Atlantic basin hurricane activity, is an ongoing scientific challenge facing scientists today. Such forecasts made during the spring generally have limited skill.
  • Many combinations of named storms (tropical and subtropical storms), hurricanes, and major hurricanes can occur for the same general set of conditions. For example, one cannot know with certainty whether a given signal may be associated with several shorter-lived storms or fewer longer-lived storms with greater intensity.
  • Model predictions of sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), vertical wind shear, moisture, atmospheric stability, and other factors known to influence overall seasonal hurricane activity have limited skill this far in advance of the peak months (August-October) of the hurricane season.
  • Shorter-term weather patterns that are unpredictable on seasonal time scales can sometimes develop and last for weeks or months, possibly affecting seasonal hurricane activity.

2025 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Summary
a) Predicted Activity
NOAA’s outlook for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season indicates that an above-normal season is most likely, with a moderate probability that the season could be near-normal and lower odds for a below-normal season. The outlook calls for a 60% chance of an above-normal season, along with a 30% chance for a near-normal season and only a 10% chance for a below-normal season. See NOAA definitions (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/Background.html) of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The 2025 outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during the 2025 hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1st through November 30th:

• • 13-19 Named Storms
  • 6-10 Hurricanes
  • 3-5 Major Hurricanes
  • Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 95 to 180% of the median

The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 70% of seasons with similar conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. These ranges do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years. These expected ranges are centered above the 1991-2020 seasonal averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Most of the predicted activity is likely to occur during August-September-October (ASO), the peak months of the hurricane season. The North Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1st through November 30th. This outlook will be updated in early August to coincide with the onset of the peak months of the season (ASO). b) Reasoning behind the outlook This 2025 seasonal hurricane outlook reflects the expectation of factors during ASO that have historically produced active Atlantic hurricane seasons, though some were not as active, resulting in a range of activity. The main atmospheric and oceanic factors for this outlook are:

• • • • The set of conditions that have produced the ongoing high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes which began in 1995 are likely to continue in 2025. These conditions include warmer sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and weaker trade winds in the Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region (MDR), along with weaker vertical wind shear, and a conducive West African monsoon. The oceanic component of these conditions is often referred to as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), while the ocean/atmosphere combined system is sometimes referred to as Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV). The MDR spans the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea. Currently observed SSTs in the MDR are similar to those normally observed in mid-June. Saharan Air Layer outbreaks typically mitigate some of the activity early in the season, but it is not known if this will significantly affect activity during the peak months. Tradewinds are weaker than normal which contributes to lower vertical wind shear. The upper-level circulation with the West African Monsoon is near average, though monsoon rainfall is predicted to be shifted northward and be potentially above-average for the entire season.
    • The most recent forecast from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center indicates ENSO-neutral conditions are likely through the hurricane season. During the peak months (ASO), the odds are highest for ENSO-neutral (54%), with moderate probabilities for La Niña(33%), and low chances of an El Niño event (13%) occurring. During a high-activity era, ENSO-neutral is typically associated with above-average levels of hurricane activity. La Niña events tend to reinforce those high-activity era conditions and further increase the likelihood of an above-normal hurricane season, while most of the inactive seasons are associated with El Niño events.

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NOAA predicts above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season
Above-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures set the stage
NOAA’s outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.”NOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems to provide Americans with real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “With these models and forecasting tools, we have never been more prepared for hurricane season.””As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities,” said Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm. “NOAA is critical for the delivery of early and accurate forecasts and warnings, and provides the scientific expertise needed to save lives and property.” Factors influencing NOAA’s predictions
The season is expected to be above normal – due to a confluence of factors, including continued ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear, and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes. All of these elements tend to favor tropical storm formation. The high activity era continues in the Atlantic Basin, featuring high-heat content in the ocean and reduced trade winds. The higher-heat content provides more energy to fuel storm development, while weaker winds allow the storms to develop without disruption.This hurricane season also features the potential for a northward shift of the West African monsoon, producing tropical waves that seed some of the strongest and most long-lived Atlantic storms. “In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we’ve never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens.”

Improved hurricane analysis and forecasts in store for 2025
NOAA will improve its forecast communications, decision support, and storm recovery efforts this season. These include:

• • NOAA’s model, the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System, will undergo an upgrade that is expected to result in another 5% improvement of tracking and intensity forecasts that will help forecasters provide more accurate watches and warnings.
  • NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Central Pacific Hurricane Center will be able to issue tropical cyclone advisory products up to 72 hours before the arrival of storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds on land, giving communities more time to prepare.
  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s Global Tropical Hazards Outlook, which provides advance notice of potential tropical cyclone risks, has been extended from two weeks to three weeks, to provide additional time for preparation and response.

Enhanced communication products for this season

• • NHC will offer Spanish language text products to include the Tropical Weather Outlook, Public Advisories, the Tropical Cyclone Discussion, the Tropical Cyclone Update and Key Messages.
  • NHC will again issue an experimental version of the forecast cone graphic that includes a depiction of inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings in effect for the continental U.S. New for this year, the graphic will highlight areas where a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are simultaneously in effect.
  • NHC will provide a rip current risk map when at least one active tropical system is present. The map uses data provided by local National Weather Service forecast offices. Swells from distant hurricanes cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions along the coastline.

Innovative tools for this year

• • NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Services (NESDIS), in collaboration with NOAA’s Office of Marine and Aviation Operations and NOAA Research, is deploying a new, experimental electronically scanning radar system called ROARS on NOAA’s P-3 hurricane hunter research aircraft. The system will scan beneath the plane to collect data on the ocean waves and the wind structure of the hurricane.
  • NOAA Weather Prediction Center’s experimental Probabilistic Precipitation Portal provides user-friendly access to see the forecast for rain and flash flooding up to three days in advance. In 2024, Hurricane Helene caused more than 30 inches of extreme inland rainfall that was devastating and deadly to communities in North Carolina.

NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. NOAA also issued seasonal hurricane outlooks for the eastern Pacific and central Pacific hurricane basins. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2025 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, prior to the historical peak of the season.
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Previously reported – June 2025
Atlantic Hurricane Season Could Go ‘0 For June.’ Does That Matter For The Rest Of The Season?
Unlike one year ago, this June has been dead quiet in the Atlantic. Our deeper dive examines whether this is unusual and whether that provides anything meaningful about what the rest of the season holds.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season may fail to produce its first storm through the rest of June for the first time in 11 years. But that doesn’t mean the rest of the season won’t pose dangers to the U.S. and Caribbean. ‘0 For June,’ Unlike Last Year While the Eastern Pacific has already generated five storms and two hurricanes, including Erick, we’re still waiting for the first named storm, “Andrea”, to develop in the Atlantic Basin. -One year ago, Alberto first became a tropical storm on June 19 in the Gulf, then Beryl exploded from a tropical storm to a Cat 4 hurricane by June 30 in the eastern Caribbean Sea.

Is This Unusual?
The short answer is, “For recent years, yes, but in general, not really.” Since the satellite era (1966), the season’s first storm arrived, on average, around June 10. Over a 30-year period from 1991 through 2020, that average date was June 20, according to the National Hurricane Center. Twenty-seven of 59 hurricane seasons since 1966 have failed to generate a June storm. That last happened in 2018 and 2019. This may be the first season to not produce a single storm in June, or before June, since 2014. But the last five seasons from 2020 through 2024 each produced at least one June storm. Four of those seasons, including the past two, produced multiple June storms.

Why So Quiet?
June and November are typically the two quietest months of hurricane season. By a measure known as accumulated cyclone energy or ACE, only about 2% of the Atlantic hurricane season’s activity occurs through June. This year, a combination of strong wind shear over the western Gulf and Caribbean Sea, higher than average surface pressure, more stable air suppressing thunderstorms, and less ocean heat than last year are keeping a lid on development, so far. Does This Matter For The Rest Of The Season? Given this “0 for June,” there is less of a chance that 2025’s season will be as frenetic as, say, 2020, 2017 or 2005.Since 1993, Junes with multiple storms correlate to hyperactive seasons, averaging 18 more storms, nine hurricanes and four major (Cat 3-plus) hurricanes, according to Todd Crawford, Vice President of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2. Crawford also found that seven of eight seasons with at least 10 hurricanes also had at least one June storm. ‘It Only Takes One’ Here’s what happened in the last two seasons without a June storm: 2019: Another 17 storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes formed, including Cat 5 Dorian’s catastrophic raking of the northwest Bahamas. 2018: Another 14 storms, eight hurricanes and two major hurricanes formed, including Florence’s catastrophic rainfall in the Carolinas, followed by Michael’s Cat 5 landfall in the Florida Panhandle. Each of those three hurricanes was so destructive and/or deadly that their names were retired from future use. Despite potentially somewhat reduced numbers for the season overall, the Atmospheric G2 team is forecasting three hurricanes to make a U.S. landfall in 2025. And it only takes one storm to strike where you are to make any season memorably bad.

Prepare Now, Regardless
The bottom line is we’re still very early in the season, with the most active months of August and September ahead. Now, not in the days before a hurricane strikes, is a good time to refresh or develop a plan. That includes knowing if you live in an evacuation zone, assembling a disaster kit at home, making your home as resilient as possible, checking on your insurance policy and making an inventory of your belongings.
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Previously reported – August 2025
Hurricane Season Outlook Update: Colorado State University Projects 12 More Storms, Including 8 Hurricanes
Hurricane season still has a long way to go before it ends in November. Here’s a look at how many additional storms are expected.
Atlantic hurricane season has just entered what’s historically been its busiest and most damaging stretch, and the final outlook just issued by Colorado State University is giving a glimpse of what to expect in the coming months. Updated Outlook By The Numbers

• • Led by Phil Klotzbach, CSU’s tropical meteorology project team is forecasting 16 total named storms, including the four that have already formed this season: Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter.
  • That means 12 additional storms are predicted through the rest of summer and fall, with 8 of them expected to intensify into hurricanes. CSU says 3 of those hurricanes could become Category 3 or stronger, or so-called major hurricanes.
  • The number of tropical storms predicted and hurricanes predicted is the same as the July outlook, which is when numbers were dropped by one each compared to earlier outlooks from June and April.
  • The new outlook remains slightly above the 30-year average number for both hurricanes and storms, but below the tally of 18 storms, 11 hurricanes and five Category 3-plus hurricanes in 2024. CSU added that confidence in the August forecast is lower-than-normal.

The Season So Far

• • The number of named storms this season has been a bit above the average pace. Tropical Storm Dexter formed on Aug. 3, which is 12 days ahead of when the average fourth storm has historically arrived, based on the 1991-2020 average.
  • However, by another metric called the ACE Index the season’s activity was just 24% of the average to date as of Aug. 5, according to CSU. Instead of just tallying up the number of storms, the index sums up how long storms last and how strong they become. Since this season’s storms have been short-lived and weak, the ACE index is trailing well behind pace for now.
  • Despite the weak nature of this year’s storms so far, they have been impactful. Tropical Storm Barry’s remnants played a partial role in fueling the deadly July Fourth Texas flood. Just two days later, Tropical Storm Chantal brought 4 to 12 inches of rain to North Carolina, triggering damaging, deadly floods in a narrow strip between Raleigh and Greensboro.

Forecast Factors Ahead

• • The primary reason for the slightly more active than average outlook is plenty of warm water fuel in the Atlantic to aid in the formation and strengthening of tropical storms and hurricanes. “Sea-surface temperatures in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic have anomalously warmed over the past few weeks and are now somewhat warmer than normal, although not as warm as they were last year at this time,” Klotzbach wrote.
  • Higher-than-average Caribbean wind shear observed in June and July is the top uncertain factor. This change in wind speed and direction with height in the atmosphere can be a hostile factor that tropical storms and hurricanes sometimes battle. The outlook said increased amounts of Caribbean wind shear in June and July have historically been correlated with less active hurricane seasons.
  • Another factor weighed in the forecast is the lack of El Niño conditions expected for the peak of the season. This warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean alters global wind patterns in a way that contributes to less active hurricane seasons. Instead, neutral conditions are in place, which means water temperature in the equatorial Pacific are near average. Neutral conditions have historically tipped the scales toward a more hospitable atmosphere for Atlantic tropical storms to form, although La Niña conditions (cooler equatorial Pacific waters) are usually most favorable.

Outlook Doesn’t Measure A Season’s Impacts

• • • What this hurricane season outlook cannot tell you is whether or not your area will get struck this season and when that might happen.
    • A season with fewer storms or hurricanes can still deliver the one storm that makes a season destructive or devastating. In 1992, Andrew delivered a catastrophic Category 5 strike on South Florida in what would have been an otherwise forgettable season with just seven storms.
    • You can also see the opposite case. The 2010 season was very active, with 19 storms, 12 hurricanes and five Category 3-plus hurricanes. All 12 hurricanes missed the mainland U.S., although Hurricane Earl did pass near enough to produce storm surge flooding in North Carolina’s Outer Banks and downed trees and power lines in eastern Massachusetts.

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With hurricane season relatively quiet so far, forecasters warn storms are coming While seemingly a quiet season so far, officials say things could quickly spin up with favorable ocean temperatures and conditions out there. The historical peak of hurricane season is mid-September
Tropical Storm Dexter? We hardly knew you. But Tropical Storm Chantal was a different story, especially for parts of central North Carolina. Still, the first few months of the 2025 hurricane season have been rather so-so, with some huffing and puffing from tropical waves forming in the Caribbean and Gulf, but not a lot of action from them when it comes to threatening the U.S. mainland. But as we prepare to move into the meat of hurricane season, when historically the tropics heat up just as water temperatures reach their apex, officials are warning residents − especially those along the coast − not to drop their guard. “Based on everything we see right now, it looks like the Atlantic is just heating up and it should stay active over the next couple months,” said Corey Davis, North Carolina’s assistant state climatologist. “The water across the basin is plenty warm enough for storms to form, and we’ve seen a couple of examples already of storms forming right along our coastline.”

What’s happened so far?
In the weeks before the June 1 start of hurricane season, forecasters almost unanimously predicted an above-average 2025 hurricane season due to relatively warm tropical Atlantic waters and neutral El Nino conditions − although one not as busy as the 2024 season. While impacts haven’t been too bad so far, and wind shear and sand from Africa have helped hinder storm development, that prediction has held. “With four named storms and still a month to go before the climatological season peak, it feels like we’re pretty much on schedule for that,” said Dr. Michael Mann, a meteorologist and scientist at the University of Pennsylvania. “But who knows what might still happen. Some of the climate predictions are calling for the development of La Niña conditions this fall, and if that happens we could see things ramp up further.”

What could happen in the coming weeks?
While slightly tweaked downward, updated seasonal forecasts issued recently by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center and Colorado State University are still calling for up to 18 named storms, with winds of 39 mph or greater, and 2-5 major hurricanes of Category 3 or stronger. “Many of the factors we identified ahead of the season are still at play, and conditions are largely tracking along with our May predictions,” said Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction, in a release. Davis said the reason officials are maintaining their above-average predictions is due to several factors, including the warm waters in the Gulf and Caribbean that are near last year’s bath tub-like levels. Tropical Storm Helene formed in the Gulf last year thanks to the steaming water temperatures and carried all that moisture and strength hundreds of miles inland, pummeling parts of Georgia, Western N.C., and Tennessee. “That warm water also increases the risk of rapid intensification, and that will become even more of a threat as we near the peak of the season in September, when the water is warmest,” Davis said.

When is the historic height of hurricane season?
According to the National Hurricane Center, the most active time for tropical storm activity is around Sept. 10, although peak season is generally seen as running from mid-August through mid-October. Among the notable storms that have hit the Wilmington area during that window include Hurricanes Bonnie on Aug. 26, 1998; Fran on Sept. 5, 1996; Florence on Sept. 14, 2018; Floyd on Sept. 16, 1999; Matthew on Oct. 8, 2016; and Hazel on Oct. 15, 1954. But Davis said in recent times it hasn’t been hurricanes that have caused the most pain and suffering in the Tar Heel State. While it’s been five years since a hurricane made landfall in North Carolina, with Isaias hitting Brunswick County in early August 2020, the state has been hammered by recent storm systems − fueled by climate change, experts say − that brought intense precipitation and deadly consequences to both ends of the state. Along with Helene out west, that included the no-name storm last September that surprised officials with its intensity and swamped Pleasure Island in New Hanover County and much of Brunswick County. Davis said it’s those storms, and not just the ones that grab all the headlines and online focus, that folks also should prepare for, especially with the state’s long-standing problems in many areas of handling even moderate rain events. “It’s a good reminder that people don’t need to wait to hear that ‘hurricane’ buzzword to start preparing for impacts, especially heavy rain and flooding,” he said.
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Previously reported – September 2025
Hurricane season’s peak has arrived, but the Atlantic has gone silent
Atlantic hurricane season has hit a September speed bump. The season’s peak will pass this week with no active storms for the first time in nearly a decade. June is when the six-month-long season begins, but the true bulk of hurricane activity occurs from mid-August through September and into the first half of October. Right in the middle is September 10, the statistical high point of the season. An active tropical storm or hurricane has roamed somewhere in the Atlantic on that date in roughly three-fourths of the 76 years tracked by NOAA. The Atlantic is pitching a shut out on its official peak this year – a feat that last happened in 2016. The season’s last storm was Tropical Storm Fernand, which fizzled out far from land on August 28. The National Hurricane Center expects the Atlantic to remain quiet for at least the next week. If that happens, it would be the farthest into September the Atlantic has gone without a named storm forming since 1992, according to the National Weather Service in New Orleans. Bonnie was the first September storm that year, forming on September 18. September’s special sauce September is when the most real estate is open for hurricanes to form in the Atlantic thanks to a collision of weather ingredients. The most basic building block is that water temperatures reach their warmest levels after basking in summer’s heat. Right now, much of the Atlantic basin has plenty of warmer-than-average water for prospective storms to tap into. These temperatures aren’t at the record levels set in 2023 and 2024, but they’re still warmer than they should be, driven higher in a world warming due to fossil fuel pollution. Hurricane Erin took advantage of that warmth, becoming one of the fastest-strengthening Atlantic hurricanes on record when it hit Category 5 status in mid-August. However, warm water is only one piece of the puzzle, as September is showing us right now. The tropical Atlantic has been enveloped in dry, stable air so far this month, which is one of the main reasons it’s unusually quiet. Dry air can squash a storm’s ability to generate rainfall, and it’s typically less abundant at this time of year than earlier in the season. An area of stormy weather the hurricane center tracked for development between Africa and the Caribbean last week succumbed to this hostile factor. Wind shear – changes in wind speed and direction at different levels of the atmosphere – also tends to be lowest at this point. Shear can rip apart fully developed hurricanes and tropical storms, as well as systems still in formative stages, though it wasn’t a huge obstacle for last week’s failed system. September is also when areas of showers and thunderstorms from western Africa make the trek west toward the Caribbean. These seeds for development, known as tropical waves, can spin-up storms when ingredients in the atmosphere and ocean cooperate. How the season stacks up so far and what lies ahead This season seems to be running closer to empty at a time of year it should be firing on all cylinders: Six named storms have formed so far, which is two fewer than the average by September 9, according to 1991 to 2020 data. Most of those storms have been short-lived, with Hurricane Erin’s more than 10-day-long journey being the exception. Erin remains the only hurricane so far this season, behind the typical pace of three forming by early September. Of course, impacts matter more than any numbers and several storms this year have already had dangerous outcomes. The leftover moisture from what once was Tropical Storm Barry helped fuel the devastating July 4 Texas floods. Just two days later, Tropical Storm Chantal triggered destructive and deadly floods in a narrow strip of North Carolina. In August, Hurricane Erin brought heavy rain and strong winds to the northeast Caribbean before growing in size and churning up high surf and dangerous rip currents along the East Coast. Looking forward, just over 50% of the entire hurricane season’s activity occurs after the September 10 peak, according to one measure. And we’ve seen a number of hurricanes pack a huge punch in the back end of recent seasons. Last year, Hurricane Helene’s devastating impacts played out from Florida to Georgia, western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee in late September. That was followed by Hurricane Milton’s strike on the Florida Peninsula in early October. In late September 2022, Category 4 Hurricane Ian delivered a catastrophic storm surge to southwest Florida. Destructive winds and flooding rain also pummeled the state’s peninsula. The bottom line is there’s still a long way to go before the season ends. It’s important to stay prepared, especially for those living in hurricane-prone areas.
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It’s the typical peak of Atlantic hurricane season. Where are all the storms? Subtropical ocean temperatures across the planet are at record-high levels. Here’s why that may be having a counterintuitive effect on hurricane season.
It’s Sept. 10, the typical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Normally, there would be a tropical storm or hurricane swirling around — or at least the threat of one forming. But the Atlantic Ocean is currently devoid of tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes — and on their website, the National Hurricane Center prominently displays a map of an empty basin that says “Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 7 days.” This comes after a disturbance last week, which had high odds of developing near the Caribbean islands, disintegrated after choking on dry, dusty air from the Sahara and is no longer a threat. And it’s not just the Atlantic. The tropics across the Northern Hemisphere have experienced less than 60 percent of their normal activity so far this year. That’s according to accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE, an integrated metric of tropical cyclone winds and longevity. So, what’s going on? Does it mean that hurricane season, which surged to life with Category 5 Erin last month, is fizzling out unexpectedly early? Not so fast. But there is something unusual going on. Subtropical oceans across the planet, including regions of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans, have surged to record levels of warmth, and that may be having the counterintuitive effect of contributing to fewer tropical storms. During August, subtropical oceans across the globe averaged 74.4 degrees, tying the record mark for August set just one year ago. On the other hand, tropical oceans, especially in the eastern and southern Atlantic, have cooled notably compared to last year’s record warmth — part of the reason 2024’s hurricane season was so busy. Because the subtropics have warmed significantly and the tropics have cooled, there’s less of a temperature difference, called a gradient, between the two regions. A weaker temperature gradient tends to lead to more stable, calmer atmospheric patterns in areas where storms typically form. Hurricanes play an important role in transferring heat from the tropics toward the poles. When the temperature difference between these regions decreases, that role somewhat diminishes and there may be a reduced tendency for storms to form. Also, a weather variable known as the atmospheric lapse rate — the rate at which air cools from the ground up through the atmosphere — has been weaker than normal across the Atlantic. A smaller lapse rate means rising air cools faster than its surroundings, so it can’t keep rising, making it harder for clouds and storms to form. Overall, this has meant that environmental conditions are less conducive to tropical storm development, with several meteorologists picking up on the trend. “I think what it shows is we have to look beyond just [rising] sea surface temperatures when we consider the implications of a warming climate,” said meteorologist Andy Hazelton. In a warming world, scientific research has found declining trends in the frequency of tropical storms in some ocean basins. However, storms that do form may become stronger and produce more rain. The subtropical ocean warming trend may also allow tropical storms to form or persist farther away from the tropics. Dust from the Sahara As seasonal winds strengthen across Africa, dust and sand from the Sahara get swept high into the atmosphere and carried thousands of miles, often across the Atlantic Ocean. When this hot, dry air mixes into the circulation of a developing tropical storm, it can stunt growth by cutting off the storm’s access to moisture. That’s what happened to a storm that had a high probability of developing last week. This season, dusty air probably influenced the behavior of a few storms, although there has been less dust than normal. Still, dust concentrations alone cannot fully explain the dearth of tropical disturbances. Will there be a storm soon? It’s important to remember that hurricane season is a marathon, not a sprint. Months still remain before the season ends after Nov. 30. Forecasters are closely watching a tropical cluster of clouds and thunderstorms that typically tracks around the planet every 30 to 60 days called the Madden-Julian Oscillation. It’s like an energy drink for storms, sparking conditions that are more conducive to their formation, such as rising air and towering thunderstorms, more moisture and spin in the lower levels of the atmosphere. This storm spark plug is currently located in the Pacific Ocean but is predicted to reach the Atlantic in late September into October — potentially providing some of the season’s most prime conditions for hurricane formation in a few weeks. Defense Department meteorologist Eric Webb said in a message that he thinks the period from late September through about early to mid-October is when hurricane-forming factors will intersect most comprehensively in the Atlantic, raising the risk of storms. From late September into October, fewer storms emerge from Africa as the monsoon season there begins to wane. Instead, hurricane tracks begin to favor the western part of the basin, such as the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, because it’s the focal point of ocean heat — which is currently above-average. In August, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued a La Niña watch. Cool waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean — a hallmark of La Niña — can reduce the level of clouds and thunderstorms there while enhancing it over the Atlantic. This may mean that the bulk of this season’s hurricane activity may occur late and linger longer.
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Previously reported – October 2025
Why This Year’s Hurricanes Keep Turning Away From the East Coast
There are six weeks left in the Atlantic hurricane season.
Dexter, Erin, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, then Jerry. Again and again, this year’s Atlantic hurricane season has featured storms that seemed to be heading straight to the United States, only to suddenly take a sharp turn toward the east, veering away from land and out to the open ocean. Typically, by this time in an Atlantic season, at least three hurricanes or tropical storms would have made landfall in the United States. But with 12 named storms so far this year — four of them hurricanes — the only one to make U.S. landfall was Tropical Storm Chantal, which came ashore in South Carolina in early July. (Another, Tropical Storm Barry, made landfall in Mexico in late June.) Each storm’s eastward turn has its own unique causes, but John Cangialosi, a senior hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center, said two main factors determine a storm’s path: where it formed and what is steering it.

Steering
The main steering mechanism for Atlantic storms comes from a large high pressure system known as the Bermuda high. The Bermuda high (also called the subtropical high) normally sits in the Atlantic Ocean. Its light winds circulate in a clockwise direction, which usually push hurricanes westward in the tropical Atlantic, before guiding them northward along its western edge. “They are the primary steering for storms,” Mr. Cangialosi said. However, he added that nearby low pressure systems — along the East Coast, for example — and their associated cold fronts can influence the Bermuda high’s strength. “They can cause the high to weaken and shift, and cause these storms to turn,” he said. “So, it’s a combination of both of those features.” According to the National Hurricane Center, a strong Bermuda high generally pushes hurricanes farther west, toward Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, before turning them northward. A weaker Bermuda high, however, doesn’t drive storms as far west. Instead, it turns them northward sooner, either toward the East Coast of the United States or eastward and out to sea. This year, the eastward paths of Hurricanes Erin, Gabrielle and Humberto and Tropical Storm Jerry were influenced by a weak Bermuda high. Tropical Storm Dexter differed a bit, said Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University — another atmospheric steering mechanism was at play: the jet stream. The jet stream is a fast-moving ribbon of air high in the atmosphere that flows from west to east across the North Atlantic. It not only steers storms but can also accelerate or even intensify them. Dr. Klotzbach said Dexter was “already in the jet stream flow” when it formed to the northeast of the North Carolina coast, causing the storm to move away from the U.S. Sometimes a nearby Atlantic storm can lend a helping hand. Last month’s Imelda, Dr. Klotzbach said, “was a really lucky case for the United States.” With Hurricane Humberto positioned to Imelda’s east, which helped weaken the western edge of the Bermuda high just in time, causing Imelda to slow down. The two storms also orbited around a shared center point, in what meteorologists call the Fujiwhara effect. “Then Humberto’s circulation helped pull Imelda to the east,” he said.

Location
Where a storm forms also plays a key role in determining its track. The farther east a storm develops, Mr. Cangialosi said, the more likely it is to encounter a low pressure system along its westward path, which may turn it northward and then eastward, much like the paths of Erin and Humberto. “But hypothetically,” he said, “if a storm forms far to the west, like over the western Caribbean or over the Gulf, in those cases they would probably not avoid the United States with similar patterns.” From October through November, storms tend to form farther west.

What to expect
Months ago, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said they expected an above-average season this year, with up to 18 total named storms by the time it ends in November. A typical season has 14 named storms. Looking ahead, Mr. Cangialosi said, as the season moves into the rest of October and November, storms are expected to form closer to home. “They would be much less likely to miss the U.S.,” he said. “Doesn’t mean they can’t. It just means they are closer to home and therefore would have less of an opportunity to recurve.” Hurricane landfalls after mid-October are “fairly rare,” Dr. Klotzbach said, largely because vertical wind shear near the United States is typically quite strong this time of year. Strong vertical wind shear, or the change in wind direction and wind speed with height, can disrupt a storm’s structure, making it harder for hurricanes to maintain their intensity. On Thursday, the National Hurricane Center began tracking what might become the next named storm sometime in the next week. “It’s still a long way away, so there is a lot of uncertainty,” Dr. Klotzbach said, “but there is a pretty robust signal in the various models.”
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Previously reported – November 2025
No hurricanes hit the U.S. this year, but the storms that formed sent a warning It’s the first time in a decade no hurricane has made U.S. landfall, even as near-record high ocean heat fueled monster storms.
This year marks the first time in a decade that there hasn’t been a hurricane landfall in the United States. That’s true even as several massive and menacing storms formed, many tracking perilously close to the United States. The Atlantic season, which officially ends Nov. 30, saw the likes of Hurricanes Erin and Imelda, as well as Melissa, one of the most powerful Atlantic hurricanes on record that devastated Jamaica. But it didn’t take a hurricane landfall to have dangerous consequences in the United States. In July, the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry contributed to deadly and devastating flooding in the Texas Hill Country and Tropical Storm Chantal caused destructive and fatal flooding in North Carolina, amid a global trend toward a moister atmosphere. “This season was a weird one,” said Philip Klotzbach, a senior hurricane research scientist at Colorado State University. Three storms catapulted to Category 5 intensity — the second-highest number on record for storms of that intensity within a single season. Four storms reached at least Category 4 strength. Four storms also rapidly intensified — Erin, Gabrielle, Humberto and Melissa — meaning that their winds accelerated by at least 35 mph in a day. Klotzbach emphasized that even a small number of intense storms could be more hazardous than many milder ones. “If those massive storms happen to hit something, the potential damage is a lot higher,” he added. In total there were 13 storms — one less than the long-term average. Early forecasts predicted as many as 19 storms this season, well above the number that have since formed. The exact number of storms is challenging to predict months in advance, so scientists often focus more on accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), which is a measure of storm wind strength and duration. Klotzbach added that the year had slightly more ACE than normal, even with fewer storms, underscoring the strength of the systems that did form. No tropical activity is expected in the next week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Fueling the monster storms
This year’s powerful array of storms was linked by a factor that lies deep below the ocean — high ocean heat. This excess heat is fuel for storm intensification. More than 80 percent of the Atlantic was covered by above-average ocean heat during the season, the third-highest amount on record since records began in 1958, behind only 2023 and 2024. Part of a concerning trend, the near-record high ocean heat — in the top 10 percent of historical observations — covered almost 40 percent of the Atlantic basin. Before 2022, this metric had never been higher than 30 percent, making the recent ascension of ocean heat particularly notable. Instead of churning up cooler waters from below, violent storm winds instead found more warm water beneath the surface, enabling storms to remain or become more intense. But high ocean heat alone doesn’t cause storms to form. A tropical storm begins as a cluster of thunderstorms. When that cluster taps into an unstable atmosphere — one in which warm, buoyant air is rising — it can organize and intensify. That instability is driven by the temperature difference between the warm ocean surface and the much colder upper atmosphere. This vertical gradient, known as the lapse rate, helps set what experts call the potential intensity — the upper limit on how strong a hurricane’s winds can get. “The thing that really powers the hurricane is how fast you can transfer heat from the ocean to the atmosphere. The bigger the temperature difference, the faster you can transfer heat. The faster you can transfer heat, the more powerful the hurricane can be,” said Kerry Emanuel, a professor of atmospheric science at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. But that gradient was not particularly strong this year in some parts of the Atlantic, illustrating why this temperature difference matters more than the sea temperature alone. And it forms part of the reason a warming planet may have fewer tropical storms, but more intense ones overall. “This past summer, the sea surface temperatures across much of the tropical Atlantic were warmer than normal, which is part of what led people to predict that there would be a very busy season,” Emanuel said. But because the air above was also warm, potential intensity was lower than normal. That was partly responsible for why there were fewer than normal storms originating in certain parts of the tropical Atlantic, he said. Then there was the Caribbean, where monster Hurricane Melissa formed. There, the potential intensity was high. There’s little to suggest that this extra ocean heat will subside in 2026, which means it will probably be a key factor again next hurricane season. However, one climate driver that contributed to conditions that were more conducive to hurricanes in 2024 and 2025 — La Niña — will probably fade early next year. It’s unusual to have at least two consecutive years without a hurricane landfall in the United States. It has happened only six times since records began in 1851, the last times in 2009 and 2010.
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Previously reported – December 2025
2025 Atlantic hurricane season marked by striking contrasts Seasonal activity fell within NOAA’s predicted ranges
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially ends on November 30, was notable for its striking contrast — wavering between periods of relative calm and bursts of intense activity, generating very powerful storms. Overall, the season fell within the predicted ranges for named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes issued in NOAA’s seasonal outlooks. “For the first time in a decade, not a single hurricane struck the U.S. this season, and that was a much needed break,” said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “Still, a tropical storm caused damage and casualties in the Carolinas, distant hurricanes created rough ocean waters that caused property damage along the East Coast, and neighboring countries experienced direct hits from hurricanes.” “The 2025 season was the first year NOAA’s National Hurricane Center incorporated Artificial Intelligence model guidance into their forecasts,” added Jacobs. “The NHC performed exceedingly well when it came to forecasting rapid intensification for some of the more impactful storms and provided critical decision support for our Caribbean partners.” The Atlantic basin produced 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which five became hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including four major hurricanes with winds reaching 111 mph or greater. An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. “Throughout the hurricane season, and all year long, the National Weather Service works around the clock to meet our mission of saving lives, protecting property and enhancing the national economy,” said Ken Graham, director, NOAA’s National Weather Service. “I’m grateful to this talented team for their steadfast dedication to the safety of the American public.” While the climatological peak of the hurricane season was quiet with no tropical activity, the season generated three Category 5 hurricanes, the second-most on record in a single season. “Fortunately, short-term weather patterns largely steered tropical systems away from the United States,” Graham added.
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The 2025 hurricane season is over. It was worse than you might think.
Storm after storm missed the U.S. in a season that forecasters feared could have been far worse. But many storms that missed were alarmingly powerful.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season that ends Nov. 30 was one for the record books, but maybe not in the way anyone expected when it began June 1. For the first time in a decade, no hurricane made landfall in the United States, a welcome respite to beleaguered communities across the Southeast still recovering from earlier hurricanes. But that didn’t mean it was a quiet season overall. The season with “striking contrasts” ultimately is ending pretty much within the ranges predicted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, except fewer hurricanes overall than seasonal outlooks suggested. Hurricane scientist Brian McNoldy summed it up as “a slightly above-average season with some strange characteristics.” The number of Category 5 storms was one of the most striking of those characteristics. Usually, only a small fraction of hurricanes ever become a Category 5 storm. This year, 23% of the named storms reached that status, with winds of 157 mph or more, often rapidly intensifying in warm ocean waters. In the mainland United States, Tropical Storm Chantal made landfall near Litchfield, South Carolina, on July 6 and moved over North Carolina and Virginia. Its flooding rains were blamed for at least six deaths. The effects from hurricanes far offshore in the Atlantic, combined with other storms and seasonal high tides, pummeled beaches, especially along North Carolina’s Outer Banks, where 16 houses collapsed between Sept. 16 and Oct. 28. Jamaica and other islands in the Caribbean faced terrifying Hurricane Melissa in late October, which claimed at least 90 lives as it rapidly intensified and moved across Jamaica and Cuba and through the Bahamas. The hurricane with sustained winds of 185 mph at its center caused massive destruction across western Jamaica. NOAA had forecast a 60% chance of an above-average season, with 13 to 19 named storms in the Atlantic basin. It predicted six to 10 hurricanes, and three to five major hurricanes. The season wound up with 13 named storms and five hurricanes, but four major hurricanes, with winds of 111 mph or more. That’s one less named storm and two fewer hurricanes than average, but one more major hurricane than average and slightly more than average overall cyclone energy. Still, the conversation persists about how “quiet” the season was in the United States considering the buzz at the beginning. Something to be thankful for After years in the National Weather Service in Florida, Brian LaMarre got used to people questioning why it seemed like a “quiet” season when a busy season was forecast, even if their area was just barely missed by a major storm, or when the Caribbean was getting repeated landfalls. LaMarre, founder of Inspire Weather, said that even when a storm damages areas just a few miles away, if it doesn’t happen in their neighborhood, people tend to think of it as a miss. “I always respond that’s something we should all be thankful for,” he said. That is certainly true in 2025. If not for a persistent East Coast trough, this season’s storms “would have either been coming into the Gulf or the southeastern United States,” he said. That trough created “anomalous counterclockwise steering winds around it,” McNoldy said. That effectively directed “approaching hurricanes northward well before they had a chance to reach the U.S.” LaMarre describes meteorology and human forecasting as “trying to forecast a twig moving in a river.” “Within that river, there are large rocks that change the course and create circulations and mini-eddies in the water,” he said. That’s essentially what happens in the atmosphere, and the rocks are high-pressure systems. Such subtle nuances are not predictable when the hurricane season forecasts arrive, he said. They are “short-term weather factors that fine-tune the (season) forecasts.” Many factors make the 2025 Atlantic season stand out, LaMarre said. Among them: People now know what the “Fujiwhara effect” is, he said. The meteorological phenomenon occurs when two vortices, such as tropical cyclones, approach each other, then tend to orbit a common center point. Imelda and Humberto came within 465 miles of each other and started spinning around each other. Melissa’s intensity Hurricane Melissa matched, set or nearly set several records, including:

• • With Erin and Humberto, the season produced the second-most Category 5 storms in the modern record, behind only 2005, which produced four.
  • Melissa tied the record for lowest central pressure at landfall. The only other storm with such low pressure at landfall was the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 in the Florida Keys.
  • A gust measured about 700 feet above the ocean in Melissa’s eyewall just before landfall in Jamaica – 252 mph – was the highest ever recorded by dropsonde, an instrument dropped from a Hurricane Hunter aircraft to measure the storm’s environment.
  • Melissa’s strongest sustained winds reached 185 mph, tying several other Atlantic hurricanes, and trailing only 1980’s Allen for the strongest Atlantic storm on record.

The team at Colorado State University, which pioneered the seasonal hurricane forecast, listed the following key points of the season, which ultimately produced fewer storms than the team initially projected in April:

• • The Accumulated Cyclone Energy, an index used by NOAA to describe overall hurricane activity, was 133, about 108% of average.
  • Of the past 10 seasons, nine have been either above normal or extremely active. This season wound up with more major hurricanes and more major hurricane days than average.
  • No named storms formed in the Atlantic from Aug. 24 to Sept. 16. The last time there were no known storms in that same period was 1992. Before that, the last time was in 1939.

Concluding Colorado State’s forecast was a reminder that only five months remain until the team’s first forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, planned for April 9. Read more » click here